First there was one. Now there are 2 Texas Swing Congressional Districts.
Jan McDowell has managed to move the Texas 24th Congressional District from solid red to a toss-up in 4 years! Jan had no political experience and little support when she ran against Marchant in 2016. She showed up and told people face-to-face why she was running. She learned. She impressed people with her intelligence, reason, and what is commonly referred to in Texas as "common sense."
Jan is not your typical extroverted egoistical political candidate. She is a CPA by profession. In 2018 in a three-way General Election she got 125,231 (47.54%) of the vote to GOP incumbent Marchant's 133,317 votes (50.61%) . In her previous run in 2016, she was unopposed in the Democratic Primary. In 2018 she had three male opponents in the Democratic Primary and avoided a run-off by securing 52.47% of the Democratic Primary votes (14,628 votes out of a total of 27,878 Democratic Primary voters). Turn-out wasn't all that stellar for the Republicans in District 24 in 2018 either. Despite a contested primary, only 40,735 Republicans voted and 25.59% of them voted against their GOP incumbent.
When we drill down and look at prior years, there has been a steady gain in the number of Democratic Primary in Texas’ US 24th District. In the 2014 Democratic Primary there were. 8,247 votes cast. That year 34,265 Republicans voted in the Primary. The Democratic nominee in 2014 in the 24th District was Patrick McGeherty who received 46,548 votes (32.31%) in the General Election to Marchant's 93,712 (75.04% of the 2014 General Election total vote cast).
In 2016 (McDowell's first race) she ran unopposed in the Democratic Primary and got 27,803 votes. Marchant ran unopposed in the Republican Primary and got 67,412 votes. He had a strong advantage: He was a multi-term Republican Incumbent running in a Congressional District gerrymandered to be a safe Republican District. He entered the General Election with twice as many voters identified who preferred his political party than his first-time Democratic opponent. He had money and she had very little.In a four-way General Election, McDowell with Green Party Kevin McCormick and Libertarian Mike Knolls reduced Marchant's 2018 General Election percentage to 56.18%. Jan gained 7.01% over the Democratic percentage of General Election votes cast in 2014.
2016 was a presidential year. There was increase of 61,842 more people who voted Democratic in the 2016 General Election in the district than who voted Democratic in the 2014 General Election. Republican turnout increased by 61,133 votes in the 2016 General Election over the number of voters for Marchant in the 2014 General Election. The increase in those voting Democratic between 2014 and 2016 was over double whereas the increase in Republican voters was about 25%.
In her second run, Jan McDowell entered with experience. She knew how to run a bare-bones campaign and how to stretch her campaign dollars. She had volunteers who were faithful and experienced. She knew the "lay of the land." Marchant got 21,528 fewer votes in the 2018 General Election than he got in 2016. Jan McDowell got 16,389 more votes in the 2018 General Election than she received in 2016. Only 8,086 more voters chose the multi-term incumbent Republican than voted for his Democratic challenger in the 2018 General Election. In a district which previously had been classified as SAFELY REPUBLICAN. Kenny Marchant only won with 50.61% of the vote in 2018.
The Cook's Political 2020 forecast announced that they are now classifying two Texas Congressional Districts as Swing or “Toss Up” for 2020. They have moved Texas' US 24th District for 2020 into the"Toss-up" category along with US 23. Jan McDowell and her supporters have transformed the 24th into Texas' second swing district for 2020. It is probable that the DNC, which relies heavily on Cook’s data, will classify it as a Red to Blue District. It is probable that this will make the 24th an entirely different ballpark in 2020. Before, Jan McDowell was not seen as a threat to the GOP controlled seat. Now they see blood in the water and will either circle around to replace Marchant in the Primary or to support him with massive outside support to protect the seat in the General.
Jan McDowell has announced that she is running for Congress in the 24th District again in 2020. She needs to begin building a war chest. She will need several hundred thousand dollars in her account in December 2019. She prefers individual contributions from small donors. This race is a good one for progressives to target. If we jump in and give a small amount monthly during the months leading up to when she files to run in December 2019, our contribution will probably be painless on our end but cumulatively, can make a significant difference in helping her position herself to fight a much harder fight than has ever been waged in the 24th.
Donations as small as $5, $10, or $25 a month given through ACT BLUE monthly for the next 24 months helps us equip Jan McDowell to fight off the Republican donors who want to hold onto the 24th District seat. She has demonstrated her ability to campaign and win the support of the voters in the district and she has demonstrated her ability to manage a campaign organization and to leverage the dollars donors give her. Let’s start now and target the 24th District by supporting Jan McDowell with a monthly contribution through ACT BLUE.
Checks can be mailed to
Jan McDowell for Congress
P.O. Box 110303
Carrollton, TX 75011
E-mail: Jan@JanMcDowell.com
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